{"F": {"ts_code": "603885.SH", "name": "吉祥航空", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航空机场", "sw3": "航空运输", "ind": "航空机场", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150527", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.25, "pe_ttm": 32.4822, "pb": 2.573, "dv_ttm": 1.9077, "total_mv": 2223230.4325, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-1.7, -0.1, -36.0, 14.3, 14.1, 12.4], "rev_series": [101.0, 117.7, 82.1, 201.0, 220.9, 225.0], "np_series": [-4.7, -5.0, -41.5, 7.5, 9.1, 10.4], "roe_series": [-4.0, -4.8, -42.3, 8.4, 10.6, 9.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 235.1, "np_ttm": 6.8, "ocf_ttm": 84.9, "fcf_ttm": 65.1, "fcf_yield": 29.3, "ocf_yield": 38.2, "gm_median": 12.4, "gm_std": 19.2, "gm_stab": -0.55, "gm_chg_2022": -34.3, "npm_median": 3.8, "roe_median": 8.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.3, "fix_assets": 189.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.57, "capex_dep": 1.35, "interest_debt": 380.4, "debt_ebitda": 6.7, "debt_ratio": 83.4, "debt_mv": 171.1, "payout": 41.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 39.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 9.2, "np_yoy": -70.3, "np_vol": 324.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 36.2, "fwd_pe2": 13.2, "fwd_g1": -10.0, "fwd_g2": 175.0, "peg": 0.21, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["客运收入", 47.0], ["货运收入", 2.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.6, "ret_prev2_year": 16.1, "ret_ytd": -30.2, "ret_pivot": 6.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.3, "ret_60": -4.0, "ret_120": -13.2, "ret_250": -18.4, "mdd_250": -35.5, "vol_250": 35.3, "pos_52w": 66.1}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 10, "hard": 58, "bondness": 41}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 6.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 32 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 83%,有息负债 380 亿,经营现金流/市值 38.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.4%,稳定度 -55%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 29.3%(经营现金流/市值 38.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.4%,稳定度 -55%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -34.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 1.35 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.5 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -4% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空机场」12 家中位:PE 19.6 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 11.6% / 固定资产占比 38% / 分红率 40%。", "吉祥航空:PE 比行业中位高 12.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点。"]}}