{"F": {"ts_code": "603883.SH", "name": "老百姓", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医药商业", "sw3": "线下药店", "ind": "医药商业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150423", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.47, "pe_ttm": 23.7304, "pb": 1.464, "dv_ttm": 3.0438, "total_mv": 1022225.0994, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.1, 32.1, 31.9, 32.5, 33.2, 32.3], "rev_series": [139.7, 157.0, 201.8, 224.4, 223.6, 222.4], "np_series": [6.2, 6.7, 7.8, 9.3, 5.2, 3.8], "roe_series": [16.0, 15.5, 14.4, 14.0, 7.8, 5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 224.6, "np_ttm": 4.3, "ocf_ttm": 29.2, "fcf_ttm": 27.4, "fcf_yield": 26.8, "ocf_yield": 28.6, "gm_median": 32.3, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": -0.2, "npm_median": 4.8, "roe_median": 14.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.8, "fix_assets": 13.0, "goodwill_ratio": 29.4, "pb_calc": 1.46, "capex_dep": 1.15, "interest_debt": 39.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 60.6, "debt_mv": 38.6, "payout": 60.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.3, "np_cagr3": -21.4, "rev_yoy": 2.1, "np_yoy": 12.3, "np_vol": 25.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.2, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 18.0, "fwd_pe2": 15.8, "fwd_g1": 32.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 1.29, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["中西成药", 41.0], ["非药品", 6.0], ["中药", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.5, "ret_prev2_year": -26.7, "ret_ytd": -7.3, "ret_pivot": 4.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.7, "ret_60": 18.1, "ret_120": -4.1, "ret_250": -25.8, "mdd_250": -41.4, "vol_250": 27.5, "pos_52w": 73.9}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 58, "hard": 11, "bondness": 60}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 60%、股息率 3.0%、营收 3 年复合 3.3%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.4 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.3%),硬资产占比 7%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 26.8%(经营现金流/市值 28.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.3%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 1.15 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.7 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 18% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医药商业」32 家中位:PE 22.5 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 13.4% / 固定资产占比 7% / 分红率 38%。", "老百姓:PE 比行业中位高 1.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点。"]}}