{"F": {"ts_code": "603878.SH", "name": "武进不锈", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "普钢", "sw3": "钢铁管材", "ind": "普钢", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161219", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.12, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.1352, "dv_ttm": 0.9679, "total_mv": 287308.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.3, 14.1, 14.3, 16.7, 15.2, 11.4], "rev_series": [24.0, 27.0, 28.3, 35.2, 26.5, 23.4], "np_series": [2.2, 1.8, 2.2, 3.5, 1.3, 0.8], "roe_series": [9.2, 7.2, 8.5, 13.1, 4.7, 3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.3, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 3.1, "ocf_yield": 4.6, "gm_median": 14.3, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 6.5, "roe_median": 7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.3, "fix_assets": 7.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.13, "capex_dep": 0.46, "interest_debt": 3.9, "debt_ebitda": 9.1, "debt_ratio": 35.5, "debt_mv": 13.7, "payout": 81.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.2, "np_cagr3": -28.2, "rev_yoy": -26.8, "np_yoy": -165.1, "np_vol": 45.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 26.9, "fwd_pe2": 26.9, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 0.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["无缝管", 33.0], ["焊管", 15.0], ["管件及其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 65.1, "ret_prev2_year": -18.9, "ret_ytd": -44.4, "ret_pivot": 6.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": -13.2, "ret_120": -42.4, "ret_250": -9.5, "mdd_250": -64.8, "vol_250": 56.2, "pos_52w": 41.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 31, "bondness": 69}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 36%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 4.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%(经营现金流/市值 4.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.3%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.46 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -65%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 42%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -13% / -42%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「普钢」22 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 3.5% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 57%。", "武进不锈:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 38.9个百分点。"]}}