{"F": {"ts_code": "603877.SH", "name": "太平鸟", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "非运动服装", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170109", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.69, "pe_ttm": 30.0743, "pb": 1.3597, "dv_ttm": 2.3641, "total_mv": 596309.1912, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [52.5, 52.9, 48.2, 54.1, 55.2, 56.7], "rev_series": [93.9, 109.2, 86.0, 77.9, 68.0, 63.3], "np_series": [7.1, 6.8, 1.8, 4.2, 2.6, 1.7], "roe_series": [19.2, 16.6, 4.4, 9.7, 5.7, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 63.1, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 12.6, "fcf_ttm": 9.6, "fcf_yield": 16.0, "ocf_yield": 21.1, "gm_median": 54.1, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -4.3, "npm_median": 3.8, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.2, "fix_assets": 12.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.34, "capex_dep": 3.35, "interest_debt": 17.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 38.7, "debt_mv": 28.9, "payout": 72.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -9.7, "np_cagr3": -1.9, "rev_yoy": -0.7, "np_yoy": 30.9, "np_vol": 69.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 24.5, "fwd_pe2": 20.2, "fwd_g1": 23.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 1.17, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["服饰运营", 50.0], ["PEACEBIRD男装", 21.0], ["PEACEBIRD女装", 19.0], ["MiniPeace童装", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.9, "ret_prev2_year": -10.6, "ret_ytd": -10.8, "ret_pivot": 21.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.4, "ret_60": -3.4, "ret_120": -16.2, "ret_250": -12.3, "mdd_250": -33.2, "vol_250": 37.4, "pos_52w": 71.7}, "S": {"duration": 53, "pricing": 65, "hard": 28, "bondness": 65}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 31%,PE TTM 30.1 倍 但前瞻 PE 24.5 倍,PEG 1.17。", "自由现金流 9.6 亿(正),次年预期增速 21%(8 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 54.1%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 16.0%(经营现金流/市值 21.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 54.1%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 3.35 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.1 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -3% / -16%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "太平鸟:PE 比行业中位低 7.5倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点。"]}}