{"F": {"ts_code": "603876.SH", "name": "鼎胜新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180418", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.82, "pe_ttm": 22.8833, "pb": 2.3943, "dv_ttm": 0.8577, "total_mv": 1841807.5904, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.5, 10.8, 16.2, 11.1, 8.9, 9.0], "rev_series": [124.3, 181.7, 216.1, 190.6, 240.2, 263.0], "np_series": [-0.1, 4.3, 13.8, 5.3, 3.0, 5.1], "roe_series": [-0.4, 9.9, 24.6, 8.3, 4.6, 7.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 284.6, "np_ttm": 8.0, "ocf_ttm": 17.4, "fcf_ttm": 12.4, "fcf_yield": 6.7, "ocf_yield": 9.4, "gm_median": 10.8, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": 7.7, "npm_median": 2.4, "roe_median": 8.3, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 26.4, "fix_assets": 74.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 2.39, "capex_dep": 0.68, "interest_debt": 65.9, "debt_ebitda": 3.0, "debt_ratio": 72.9, "debt_mv": 35.8, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.8, "np_cagr3": -28.1, "rev_yoy": 16.2, "np_yoy": 155.4, "np_vol": 1172.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 16.4, "fwd_pe2": 11.2, "fwd_g1": 40.0, "fwd_g2": 46.0, "peg": 0.36, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["铝板带箔", 33.0], ["铝板带", 33.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 72.6, "ret_prev2_year": -28.6, "ret_ytd": 33.2, "ret_pivot": 142.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.3, "ret_60": -21.0, "ret_120": -4.5, "ret_250": 106.2, "mdd_250": -42.4, "vol_250": 58.9, "pos_52w": 61.1}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 70, "hard": 42, "bondness": 38}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["商品定价", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 155%,PE TTM 22.9 倍 但前瞻 PE 16.4 倍,PEG 0.36。", "自由现金流 12.4 亿(正),次年预期增速 46%(3 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 10.8%),硬资产占比 26%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.7%(经营现金流/市值 9.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.8%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 0.68 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.9 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 106%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -21% / -4%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "鼎胜新材:PE 比行业中位高 2.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点。"]}}