{"F": {"ts_code": "603871.SH", "name": "嘉友国际", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "跨境物流", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180206", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.99, "pe_ttm": 14.5932, "pb": 3.0571, "dv_ttm": 2.8549, "total_mv": 1913844.1713, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.4, 12.6, 19.3, 19.4, 20.5, 18.5], "rev_series": [32.8, 38.9, 48.3, 70.0, 87.5, 83.8], "np_series": [3.6, 3.4, 6.8, 10.4, 12.8, 11.4], "roe_series": [17.9, 13.7, 19.4, 23.0, 24.4, 19.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 82.6, "np_ttm": 13.1, "ocf_ttm": 13.8, "fcf_ttm": 10.9, "fcf_yield": 5.7, "ocf_yield": 7.2, "gm_median": 19.3, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 3.9, "npm_median": 14.1, "roe_median": 19.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.7, "fix_assets": 11.2, "goodwill_ratio": 3.2, "pb_calc": 3.06, "capex_dep": 2.13, "interest_debt": 6.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 27.4, "debt_mv": 3.2, "payout": 47.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 20.1, "np_cagr3": 18.8, "rev_yoy": -2.9, "np_yoy": 30.4, "np_vol": 40.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 66.0, "earn_yield": 6.9, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 13.3, "fwd_pe2": 11.8, "fwd_g1": 10.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 1.11, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["供应链贸易服务", 28.0], ["跨境多式联运综合物流服务", 17.0], ["陆港项目服务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.7, "ret_prev2_year": 89.4, "ret_ytd": 1.7, "ret_pivot": 7.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.6, "ret_60": 21.1, "ret_120": -8.3, "ret_250": 26.4, "mdd_250": -36.0, "vol_250": 41.7, "pos_52w": 87.7}, "S": {"duration": 31, "pricing": 50, "hard": 20, "bondness": 35}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 30%,PE TTM 14.6 倍 但前瞻 PE 13.3 倍,PEG 1.11。", "自由现金流 10.9 亿(正),次年预期增速 12%(14 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.7%(经营现金流/市值 7.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 2.13 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.6 倍 粗算,约 66%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 26%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 21% / -8%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "嘉友国际:PE 比行业中位低 6.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.9个百分点。"]}}