{"F": {"ts_code": "603869.SH", "name": "ST智知", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150326", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.99, "pe_ttm": 147.3602, "pb": 1.1695, "dv_ttm": 0.2666, "total_mv": 439271.178, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.5, 40.8, 33.4, 30.7, 37.8, 35.9], "rev_series": [11.7, 9.4, 9.6, 9.5, 6.7, 6.8], "np_series": [0.2, 0.2, 0.2, -0.7, 0.2, 0.4], "roe_series": [0.3, 0.7, 0.5, -1.8, 0.6, 1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.3, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 6.2, "gm_median": 35.9, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 0.9, "npm_median": 3.1, "roe_median": 0.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.0, "fix_assets": 7.7, "goodwill_ratio": 12.2, "pb_calc": 1.17, "capex_dep": 1.49, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 16.3, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 32.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -10.9, "np_cagr3": 27.4, "rev_yoy": -20.0, "np_yoy": -42.2, "np_vol": 238.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 86.6, "ret_prev2_year": -39.8, "ret_ytd": -14.9, "ret_pivot": 100.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.4, "ret_60": 4.2, "ret_120": -8.6, "ret_250": 5.3, "mdd_250": -34.1, "vol_250": 32.6, "pos_52w": 79.9}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 58, "hard": 27, "bondness": 33}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 147.4 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 17%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.9%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 6.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.9%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 1.49 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 147.4 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 4% / -9%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "ST智知:PE 比行业中位高 63.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.4个百分点。"]}}