{"F": {"ts_code": "603867.SH", "name": "新化股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190627", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.08, "pe_ttm": 23.0403, "pb": 2.0199, "dv_ttm": 1.3718, "total_mv": 632451.3236, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.3, 18.4, 23.6, 23.3, 20.8, 22.3], "rev_series": [23.2, 25.5, 26.8, 26.0, 29.7, 29.4], "np_series": [2.1, 2.0, 3.3, 2.5, 2.3, 2.6], "roe_series": [14.5, 12.5, 17.8, 11.9, 10.0, 9.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 31.6, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 5.4, "gm_median": 22.3, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 2.2, "npm_median": 10.3, "roe_median": 11.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.2, "fix_assets": 22.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.02, "capex_dep": 1.73, "interest_debt": 3.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 26.5, "debt_mv": 5.3, "payout": 33.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.1, "np_cagr3": -7.5, "rev_yoy": 14.6, "np_yoy": 9.5, "np_vol": 31.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.3, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 19.2, "fwd_pe2": 15.9, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 0.91, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["脂肪胺", 43.0], ["合成香料", 25.0], ["有机溶剂", 11.0], ["其他主营业务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.2, "ret_prev2_year": -25.4, "ret_ytd": 16.3, "ret_pivot": 59.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.1, "ret_60": -26.2, "ret_120": -13.8, "ret_250": 3.0, "mdd_250": -38.0, "vol_250": 49.1, "pos_52w": 69.7}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 52, "hard": 77, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 23.0 倍、股息率 1.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%、固定资产占比 48%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 5.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 1.73 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.0 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -26% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "新化股份:PE 比行业中位低 12.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.7个百分点。"]}}