{"F": {"ts_code": "603866.SH", "name": "桃李面包", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "休闲食品", "sw3": "烘焙食品", "ind": "休闲食品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20151222", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.34, "pe_ttm": 30.8208, "pb": 1.3793, "dv_ttm": 4.6083, "total_mv": 694278.1328, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.0, 26.3, 24.0, 22.8, 23.4, 22.5], "rev_series": [59.6, 63.4, 66.9, 67.6, 60.9, 54.5], "np_series": [8.8, 7.6, 6.4, 5.7, 5.2, 2.8], "roe_series": [20.6, 15.6, 12.9, 11.4, 10.2, 5.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 54.0, "np_ttm": 2.3, "ocf_ttm": 6.6, "fcf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_yield": 5.8, "ocf_yield": 9.5, "gm_median": 23.4, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -6.0, "npm_median": 8.6, "roe_median": 11.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 73.6, "fix_assets": 52.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.38, "capex_dep": 0.91, "interest_debt": 12.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 28.8, "debt_mv": 18.0, "payout": 76.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.6, "np_cagr3": -23.7, "rev_yoy": -2.0, "np_yoy": -28.7, "np_vol": 13.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 24.9, "fwd_pe2": 22.6, "fwd_g1": 24.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 2.49, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["面包及糕点", 33.0], ["面包", 33.0], ["其他主营", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -19.3, "ret_prev2_year": -10.8, "ret_ytd": -14.2, "ret_pivot": -9.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.4, "ret_60": 5.9, "ret_120": -15.7, "ret_250": -21.2, "mdd_250": -35.4, "vol_250": 21.7, "pos_52w": 76.1}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 48, "hard": 100, "bondness": 79}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 77%、股息率 4.6%、营收 3 年复合 -6.6%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.6 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 74%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.4%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.8%(经营现金流/市值 9.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.4%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 74%,资本开支/折旧 0.91 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.8 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 6% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「休闲食品」22 家中位:PE 21.1 / 股息率 2.9% / 毛利率 29.5% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 67%。", "桃李面包:PE 比行业中位高 9.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 42.7个百分点。"]}}