{"F": {"ts_code": "603863.SH", "name": "松炀资源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "造纸", "sw3": "大宗用纸", "ind": "造纸", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190621", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.41, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 11.649, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 253970.65, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.2, 10.9, -20.2, -13.5, -6.8, -9.9], "rev_series": [5.0, 6.0, 9.3, 6.2, 7.1, 4.4], "np_series": [0.8, 0.1, -2.8, -2.4, -2.4, -2.0], "roe_series": [6.7, 0.8, -26.7, -30.5, -41.9, -57.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.0, "np_ttm": -1.9, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": -0.6, "gm_median": -9.9, "gm_std": 10.4, "gm_stab": 2.05, "gm_chg_2022": -41.4, "npm_median": -33.3, "roe_median": -30.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 66.2, "fix_assets": 5.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 11.65, "capex_dep": 0.18, "interest_debt": 3.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 75.4, "debt_mv": 13.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -21.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 25.9, "np_yoy": 36.0, "np_vol": 1284.2, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["高强瓦楞纸", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.8, "ret_prev2_year": -40.6, "ret_ytd": -37.8, "ret_pivot": -51.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.7, "ret_60": -17.7, "ret_120": -40.1, "ret_250": -37.0, "mdd_250": -52.3, "vol_250": 57.4, "pos_52w": 52.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 100, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 66%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 -9.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -41.4 个百分点;资产负债率 75%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 66%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 -9.9%,稳定度 205%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 -0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -9.9%,稳定度 205%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -41.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 66%,资本开支/折旧 0.18 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -37%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -18% / -40%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「造纸」25 家中位:PE 21.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 13.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 33%。", "松炀资源:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 23.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.3个百分点。"]}}