{"F": {"ts_code": "603859.SH", "name": "能科科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161021", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.85, "pe_ttm": 48.084, "pb": 2.4098, "dv_ttm": 0.2183, "total_mv": 1008320.5935, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.9, 39.9, 44.0, 48.8, 49.5, 48.9], "rev_series": [9.5, 11.4, 12.4, 14.0, 15.1, 15.2], "np_series": [1.2, 1.6, 2.0, 2.3, 1.9, 2.3], "roe_series": [8.9, 8.5, 8.2, 8.7, 6.8, 7.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.3, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 48.8, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 4.1, "npm_median": 18.7, "roe_median": 8.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.4, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.7, "pb_calc": 2.41, "capex_dep": 21.57, "interest_debt": 5.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 26.5, "debt_mv": 4.9, "payout": 7.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 7.3, "np_cagr3": 4.4, "rev_yoy": 0.3, "np_yoy": -14.4, "np_vol": 16.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 34.8, "fwd_pe2": 27.9, "fwd_g1": 38.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 1.39, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 40.9, "ret_prev2_year": 17.7, "ret_ytd": -9.8, "ret_pivot": 163.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.1, "ret_60": -27.1, "ret_120": -7.0, "ret_250": -13.4, "mdd_250": -40.6, "vol_250": 59.6, "pos_52w": 64.7}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 67, "hard": 4, "bondness": 20}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 48.1 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 48.8%、固定资产占比 2%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 48.8%),硬资产占比 2%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 48.8%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 21.57 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 48.1 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -27% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "能科科技:PE 比行业中位低 35.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 20.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.2个百分点。"]}}