{"F": {"ts_code": "603855.SH", "name": "华荣股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170524", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.06, "pe_ttm": 16.0447, "pb": 2.4832, "dv_ttm": 5.8077, "total_mv": 575793.766, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [53.2, 45.9, 50.4, 54.2, 46.7, 51.2], "rev_series": [22.8, 30.3, 30.4, 32.0, 39.6, 32.2], "np_series": [2.6, 3.8, 3.6, 4.6, 4.6, 3.7], "roe_series": [16.7, 22.6, 20.2, 24.7, 22.8, 17.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.1, "np_ttm": 3.6, "ocf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_yield": 4.1, "ocf_yield": 5.3, "gm_median": 50.4, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -2.8, "npm_median": 11.9, "roe_median": 22.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.9, "fix_assets": 5.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.48, "capex_dep": 1.12, "interest_debt": 3.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 52.5, "debt_mv": 5.2, "payout": 73.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.9, "np_cagr3": 1.1, "rev_yoy": -12.8, "np_yoy": -5.6, "np_vol": 24.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.2, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 13.0, "fwd_pe2": 11.4, "fwd_g1": 24.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 1.0, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["防爆产品", 43.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0], ["其他", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.3, "ret_prev2_year": 7.8, "ret_ytd": -7.0, "ret_pivot": 30.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.5, "ret_60": 3.7, "ret_120": -11.4, "ret_250": -21.4, "mdd_250": -29.1, "vol_250": 25.7, "pos_52w": 77.9}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 63, "hard": 17, "bondness": 75}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 11%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 50.4%,稳定度 94%、ROE 近 5 年中位 22.6%。", "自由现金流/市值 4.1%,分红率 73%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 50.4%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.1%(经营现金流/市值 5.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 50.4%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 1.12 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.0 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 4% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "华荣股份:PE 比行业中位低 26.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 24.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.1个百分点。"]}}