{"F": {"ts_code": "603848.SH", "name": "好太太", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "成品家居", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171201", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.56, "pe_ttm": 24.8841, "pb": 2.11, "dv_ttm": 1.4749, "total_mv": 545663.214, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.4, 45.1, 46.4, 51.4, 48.0, 48.8], "rev_series": [11.6, 14.3, 13.8, 16.9, 15.6, 15.4], "np_series": [2.7, 3.0, 2.2, 3.3, 2.5, 2.0], "roe_series": [17.0, 17.0, 11.1, 15.1, 10.5, 8.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.2, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 48.0, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 15.9, "roe_median": 11.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.9, "fix_assets": 8.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.11, "capex_dep": 2.97, "interest_debt": 2.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 18.1, "debt_mv": 4.5, "payout": 36.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.8, "np_cagr3": -2.4, "rev_yoy": 11.2, "np_yoy": 18.6, "np_vol": 29.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 23.1, "fwd_pe2": 20.2, "fwd_g1": 8.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 1.54, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能家居产品", 73.0], ["晾衣架产品", 9.0], ["晾衣架", 9.0], ["其他产品", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 12.5, "ret_prev2_year": 8.7, "ret_ytd": -25.0, "ret_pivot": 19.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.2, "ret_60": -0.1, "ret_120": -17.6, "ret_250": -45.8, "mdd_250": -62.1, "vol_250": 45.2, "pos_52w": 41.8}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 64, "hard": 37, "bondness": 40}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 24.9 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 48.0%、固定资产占比 23%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 48.0%),硬资产占比 23%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 48.0%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 2.97 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.9 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -62%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 42%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -0% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "好太太:PE 比行业中位低 3.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.7个百分点。"]}}