{"F": {"ts_code": "603838.SH", "name": "*ST四通", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "其他家居用品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150701", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.83, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.3774, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 378578.928, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.1, 18.8, 5.5, 4.2, 7.4, -3.6], "rev_series": [2.9, 3.8, 2.4, 1.9, 2.9, 3.6], "np_series": [-0.0, 0.3, -0.3, -0.4, -0.2, -0.8], "roe_series": [-0.5, 3.0, -2.4, -3.7, -2.4, -8.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.9, "np_ttm": -0.9, "ocf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -3.3, "ocf_yield": -3.0, "gm_median": 5.5, "gm_std": 7.2, "gm_stab": -0.31, "gm_chg_2022": -16.6, "npm_median": -11.0, "roe_median": -2.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.2, "fix_assets": 2.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.38, "capex_dep": 0.49, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 17.4, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 14.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 17.7, "np_yoy": -59.1, "np_vol": 361.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["釉料", 20.0], ["日用陶瓷", 13.0], ["卫生陶瓷", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.8, "ret_prev2_year": -22.4, "ret_ytd": 58.2, "ret_pivot": 201.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 37.6, "ret_60": 35.2, "ret_120": 24.8, "ret_250": 76.3, "mdd_250": -35.4, "vol_250": 43.6, "pos_52w": 88.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 6, "hard": 31, "bondness": 8}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 17%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -3.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 5.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.3%(经营现金流/市值 -3.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.5%,稳定度 -31%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.49 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 76%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 89%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 38% / 35% / 25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "*ST四通:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 22.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.4个百分点。"]}}