{"F": {"ts_code": "603823.SH", "name": "百合花", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "涂料油墨", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161220", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 52.76, "pe_ttm": 120.1147, "pb": 8.7077, "dv_ttm": 0.2464, "total_mv": 2196755.9852, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.0, 26.1, 19.7, 18.0, 20.3, 20.9], "rev_series": [20.1, 24.6, 24.7, 22.8, 24.0, 21.5], "np_series": [2.6, 3.1, 2.1, 1.2, 1.8, 1.7], "roe_series": [15.4, 16.4, 10.3, 5.5, 7.7, 6.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.2, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 20.3, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -6.3, "npm_median": 8.9, "roe_median": 7.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.5, "fix_assets": 10.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 8.71, "capex_dep": 0.84, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 23.2, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 34.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.5, "np_cagr3": -8.0, "rev_yoy": 5.9, "np_yoy": 16.0, "np_vol": 33.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 112.3, "fwd_pe2": 97.7, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 7.49, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["颜料", 44.0], ["中间体等其他产品", 3.0], ["中间体", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 65.4, "ret_prev2_year": -4.1, "ret_ytd": 253.6, "ret_pivot": 557.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -19.9, "ret_60": 23.8, "ret_120": 215.0, "ret_250": 287.9, "mdd_250": -42.9, "vol_250": 73.4, "pos_52w": 61.1}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 44, "hard": 49, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 120.1 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.3%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 20.3%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.3%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.84 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 120.1 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 288%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 73%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -20% / 24% / 215%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "百合花:PE 比行业中位高 84.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.0个百分点。"]}}