{"F": {"ts_code": "603822.SH", "name": "ST嘉澳", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160428", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 66.48, "pe_ttm": 28.8974, "pb": 11.321, "dv_ttm": 0.1841, "total_mv": 510738.5832, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.7, 14.7, 5.4, 5.3, -4.9, 17.0], "rev_series": [12.3, 19.2, 32.1, 26.7, 12.7, 48.3], "np_series": [0.4, 1.0, -0.5, -0.1, -3.7, 0.3], "roe_series": [4.6, 11.8, -4.8, -0.7, -44.8, 6.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 58.2, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 7.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 14.5, "gm_median": 5.4, "gm_std": 7.8, "gm_stab": -0.45, "gm_chg_2022": -8.3, "npm_median": -0.2, "roe_median": -0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.5, "fix_assets": 38.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 11.32, "capex_dep": 1.65, "interest_debt": 45.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.4, "debt_ratio": 77.6, "debt_mv": 88.8, "payout": 30.2, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 14.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 76.1, "np_yoy": 185.8, "np_vol": 1931.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 10.3, "fwd_pe2": 6.3, "fwd_g1": 182.0, "fwd_g2": 63.0, "peg": 0.16, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["合计", 33.0], ["产品", 33.0], ["主营业务", 33.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 98.1, "ret_prev2_year": 75.7, "ret_ytd": -31.0, "ret_pivot": 142.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.2, "ret_60": -17.8, "ret_120": -43.2, "ret_250": 0.1, "mdd_250": -55.6, "vol_250": 55.8, "pos_52w": 54.5}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 6, "hard": 79, "bondness": 27}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 50%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 5.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 50%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 5.4%,稳定度 -45%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 14.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.4%,稳定度 -45%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 1.65 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.9 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 0%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / -18% / -43%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "ST嘉澳:PE 比行业中位低 7.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 16.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.0个百分点。"]}}