{"F": {"ts_code": "603818.SH", "name": "曲美家居", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "成品家居", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150422", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.81, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.3686, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 261573.2259, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.4, 35.8, 32.3, 31.8, 35.2, 36.9], "rev_series": [42.8, 50.7, 48.5, 40.3, 35.5, 34.1], "np_series": [1.0, 1.8, 0.4, -3.0, -1.6, -1.5], "roe_series": [5.7, 8.5, 1.8, -14.9, -8.1, -7.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.4, "np_ttm": -1.8, "ocf_ttm": 5.7, "fcf_ttm": 5.2, "fcf_yield": 19.8, "ocf_yield": 21.7, "gm_median": 35.2, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -11.1, "npm_median": -4.4, "roe_median": -7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.2, "fix_assets": 10.0, "goodwill_ratio": 18.1, "pb_calc": 1.37, "capex_dep": 0.38, "interest_debt": 25.6, "debt_ebitda": 9.5, "debt_ratio": 65.2, "debt_mv": 98.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -11.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -4.2, "np_yoy": -56.6, "np_vol": 377.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 38.1, "fwd_pe2": 22.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 70.0, "peg": 0.54, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["Ekornes旗下产品", 27.0], ["Ekornes产品", 27.0], ["曲美产品", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.7, "ret_prev2_year": -49.4, "ret_ytd": 5.5, "ret_pivot": 75.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.0, "ret_60": 30.9, "ret_120": -0.5, "ret_250": -13.0, "mdd_250": -36.8, "vol_250": 38.8, "pos_52w": 86.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 54, "hard": 28, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "商誉占比高", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 65%,有息负债 26 亿,经营现金流/市值 21.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.2%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 19.8%(经营现金流/市值 21.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.2%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 0.38 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 31% / -0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "曲美家居:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.4个百分点。"]}}