{"F": {"ts_code": "603817.SH", "name": "海峡环保", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170220", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.86, "pe_ttm": 14.3888, "pb": 1.0055, "dv_ttm": 1.2799, "total_mv": 334069.224, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.7, 42.5, 39.8, 36.3, 40.2, 42.8], "rev_series": [7.3, 8.9, 10.4, 10.5, 12.2, 13.8], "np_series": [1.3, 1.5, 1.5, 1.4, 1.9, 2.1], "roe_series": [7.4, 7.8, 6.6, 5.5, 7.0, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.5, "np_ttm": 2.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_yield": -6.0, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 40.2, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -1.9, "npm_median": 13.5, "roe_median": 7.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.8, "fix_assets": 9.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.01, "capex_dep": 2.29, "interest_debt": 19.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.9, "debt_ratio": 51.7, "debt_mv": 58.3, "payout": 20.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.6, "np_cagr3": 12.8, "rev_yoy": -3.5, "np_yoy": 16.2, "np_vol": 12.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 65.0, "earn_yield": 6.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["污水处理", 31.0], ["水处理业务", 31.0], ["综合技术服务业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.7, "ret_prev2_year": -11.3, "ret_ytd": -16.9, "ret_pivot": 29.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.0, "ret_60": 1.6, "ret_120": -23.5, "ret_250": -1.8, "mdd_250": -43.9, "vol_250": 42.9, "pos_52w": 64.9}, "S": {"duration": 30, "pricing": 59, "hard": 22, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 14.4 倍、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 40.2%、固定资产占比 14%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 40.2%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.2%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 2.29 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.4 倍 粗算,约 65%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 2% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "海峡环保:PE 比行业中位低 11.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点。"]}}