{"F": {"ts_code": "603816.SH", "name": "顾家家居", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "成品家居", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161014", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.74, "pe_ttm": 12.9653, "pb": 2.1137, "dv_ttm": 5.1575, "total_mv": 2197690.142, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.2, 28.9, 30.8, 32.8, 32.7, 32.8], "rev_series": [126.7, 183.4, 180.1, 192.1, 184.8, 200.6], "np_series": [8.5, 16.6, 18.1, 20.1, 14.2, 17.9], "roe_series": [13.4, 22.6, 21.4, 21.7, 14.6, 17.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 201.3, "np_ttm": 17.0, "ocf_ttm": 23.4, "fcf_ttm": 16.3, "fcf_yield": 7.4, "ocf_yield": 10.6, "gm_median": 32.7, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -4.4, "npm_median": 9.3, "roe_median": 21.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.5, "fix_assets": 61.8, "goodwill_ratio": 1.9, "pb_calc": 2.11, "capex_dep": 1.43, "interest_debt": 15.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 45.3, "debt_mv": 7.2, "payout": 62.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.7, "np_cagr3": -0.4, "rev_yoy": 0.8, "np_yoy": -9.3, "np_vol": 41.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 61.0, "earn_yield": 7.7, "consensus_n": 24, "fwd_pe": 10.8, "fwd_pe2": 9.8, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 1.08, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["沙发", 30.0], ["卧室用品", 8.0], ["卧室产品", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.3, "ret_prev2_year": -19.5, "ret_ytd": -19.1, "ret_pivot": 16.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.1, "ret_60": -7.4, "ret_120": -27.2, "ret_250": -15.8, "mdd_250": -40.7, "vol_250": 34.1, "pos_52w": 67.1}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 54, "hard": 50, "bondness": 70}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 62 亿,占总资产 32%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 32.7%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 7.4%,股息率 5.2%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 61%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 32%)和定价权(毛利率 32.7% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.4%(经营现金流/市值 10.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.7%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 1.43 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.0 倍 粗算,约 61%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -7% / -27%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "顾家家居:PE 比行业中位低 15.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点。"]}}