{"F": {"ts_code": "603815.SH", "name": "交建股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "基础建设", "sw3": "基建市政工程", "ind": "基础建设", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20191021", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.42, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.1248, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 335456.9164, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.1, 8.3, 7.8, 10.8, 11.3, 10.0], "rev_series": [31.8, 51.3, 65.0, 48.1, 41.7, 38.5], "np_series": [1.0, 1.5, 1.8, 1.7, 1.3, -7.8], "roe_series": [8.8, 9.3, 8.6, 7.8, 5.6, -40.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.5, "np_ttm": -8.3, "ocf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_ttm": -2.7, "fcf_yield": -7.9, "ocf_yield": -6.5, "gm_median": 10.0, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -2.3, "npm_median": 2.9, "roe_median": 7.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.8, "fix_assets": 0.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.12, "capex_dep": 3.33, "interest_debt": 18.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 79.2, "debt_mv": 53.9, "payout": 30.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -16.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -45.8, "np_yoy": -44.7, "np_vol": 282.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["公路、市政基础设施建设", 23.0], ["公路,市政基础设施建设", 23.0], ["房屋建筑及附属设施建设", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.7, "ret_prev2_year": -32.2, "ret_ytd": -27.2, "ret_pivot": -0.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.3, "ret_60": -1.8, "ret_120": -18.3, "ret_250": -42.0, "mdd_250": -65.9, "vol_250": 57.1, "pos_52w": 37.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 1, "bondness": 34}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -8.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 79%,有息负债 18 亿,经营现金流/市值 -6.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.9%(经营现金流/市值 -6.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.0%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 3.33 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -66%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 38%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -2% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「基础建设」40 家中位:PE 11.7 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 12.4% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 28%。", "交建股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点。"]}}