{"F": {"ts_code": "603813.SH", "name": "原尚股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "公路货运", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170918", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.55, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.0884, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 289316.325, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.9, 24.9, 22.8, 20.5, 16.6, 8.8], "rev_series": [4.6, 4.9, 5.2, 4.6, 3.0, 3.4], "np_series": [-1.6, 0.3, 0.4, -0.1, -0.5, -0.7], "roe_series": [-28.2, 6.1, 6.2, -1.2, -8.5, -12.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.5, "np_ttm": -0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -5.3, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 20.5, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": -1.8, "roe_median": -1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.5, "fix_assets": 3.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.09, "capex_dep": 5.05, "interest_debt": 7.9, "debt_ebitda": 28.4, "debt_ratio": 68.4, "debt_mv": 27.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -13.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 5.8, "np_yoy": -49.7, "np_vol": 241.2, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["综合物流服务", 38.0], ["租赁服务", 8.0], ["商品销售", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 229.2, "ret_prev2_year": -27.1, "ret_ytd": -27.8, "ret_pivot": 209.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.4, "ret_60": -27.3, "ret_120": -18.4, "ret_250": 62.6, "mdd_250": -53.1, "vol_250": 56.2, "pos_52w": 59.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 39, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 68%,有息负债 8 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.5%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 5.05 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 63%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -27% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "原尚股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.9个百分点。"]}}