{"F": {"ts_code": "603808.SH", "name": "歌力思", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "非运动服装", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150422", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.68, "pe_ttm": 17.5086, "pb": 1.2004, "dv_ttm": 2.0968, "total_mv": 315720.4176, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [66.2, 67.0, 63.8, 67.8, 67.4, 66.9], "rev_series": [19.6, 23.6, 23.9, 29.2, 30.4, 28.6], "np_series": [4.4, 3.0, 0.2, 1.1, -3.1, 1.6], "roe_series": [21.8, 12.1, 0.7, 3.7, -11.5, 6.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.3, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 6.7, "fcf_ttm": 6.2, "fcf_yield": 19.7, "ocf_yield": 21.2, "gm_median": 67.0, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.2, "fix_assets": 0.9, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 1.2, "capex_dep": 1.71, "interest_debt": 4.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 30.4, "debt_mv": 14.1, "payout": 61.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.1, "np_cagr3": 100.5, "rev_yoy": 5.2, "np_yoy": 18.2, "np_vol": 268.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.7, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 15.4, "fwd_pe2": 12.6, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 0.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["主营业务", 33.0], ["ELLASSAY", 12.0], ["self-portrait", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.4, "ret_prev2_year": -22.3, "ret_ytd": 4.1, "ret_pivot": 51.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.8, "ret_60": -2.3, "ret_120": -8.9, "ret_250": 8.3, "mdd_250": -37.6, "vol_250": 38.4, "pos_52w": 77.7}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 74, "hard": 4, "bondness": 50}, "label": "轻资产现金牛", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 67.0%,自由现金流/市值 19.7%:现金机器,久期短。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 67.0%),硬资产占比 2%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "久期短、无杠杆,加息期相对安全;放水期跑不过科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 19.7%(经营现金流/市值 21.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 67.0%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 1.71 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.5 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 8%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -2% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "歌力思:PE 比行业中位低 20.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 25.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.9个百分点。"]}}