{"F": {"ts_code": "603806.SH", "name": "福斯特", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "光伏辅材", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140905", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.49, "pe_ttm": 33.8673, "pb": 2.3214, "dv_ttm": 1.0341, "total_mv": 3780072.5193, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.4, 25.1, 15.6, 14.6, 14.7, 11.0], "rev_series": [83.9, 128.6, 188.8, 225.9, 191.5, 154.9], "np_series": [15.7, 22.0, 15.8, 18.5, 13.1, 7.7], "roe_series": [20.1, 20.7, 12.1, 12.5, 8.2, 4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 145.2, "np_ttm": 11.2, "ocf_ttm": 36.3, "fcf_ttm": 32.4, "fcf_yield": 8.6, "ocf_yield": 9.6, "gm_median": 14.7, "gm_std": 4.7, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": -12.7, "npm_median": 8.2, "roe_median": 12.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.8, "fix_assets": 44.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.26, "capex_dep": 0.78, "interest_debt": 29.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 20.0, "debt_mv": 7.7, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.4, "np_cagr3": -21.3, "rev_yoy": -12.2, "np_yoy": 69.9, "np_vol": 31.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 22, "fwd_pe": 23.6, "fwd_pe2": 18.1, "fwd_g1": 44.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 0.79, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["光伏胶膜", 84.0], ["感光干膜", 5.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0], ["其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.0, "ret_prev2_year": -14.0, "ret_ytd": 4.9, "ret_pivot": 10.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.2, "ret_60": -4.9, "ret_120": -16.3, "ret_250": -0.1, "mdd_250": -31.7, "vol_250": 49.0, "pos_52w": 73.0}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 35, "hard": 33, "bondness": 49}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 70%,PE TTM 33.9 倍 但前瞻 PE 23.6 倍,PEG 0.79。", "自由现金流 32.4 亿(正),次年预期增速 30%(22 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 21%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.6%(经营现金流/市值 9.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.7%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 0.78 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.9 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -5% / -16%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "福斯特:PE 比行业中位低 7.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点。"]}}