{"F": {"ts_code": "603801.SH", "name": "志邦家居", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "定制家居", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170630", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.27, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.9346, "dv_ttm": 6.227, "total_mv": 272338.3905, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.1, 36.2, 37.7, 37.1, 36.3, 33.2], "rev_series": [38.4, 51.5, 53.9, 61.2, 52.6, 43.6], "np_series": [4.0, 5.1, 5.4, 6.0, 3.9, 2.0], "roe_series": [19.0, 21.0, 19.6, 19.3, 11.5, 6.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 39.2, "np_ttm": -0.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.0, "ocf_yield": 8.6, "gm_median": 36.3, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -0.4, "npm_median": 9.7, "roe_median": 19.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.8, "fix_assets": 17.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.92, "capex_dep": 1.15, "interest_debt": 11.7, "debt_ebitda": 6.9, "debt_ratio": 50.7, "debt_mv": 42.9, "payout": 67.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.8, "np_cagr3": -27.5, "rev_yoy": -22.9, "np_yoy": -214.1, "np_vol": 28.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 17.5, "fwd_pe2": 12.5, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 40.0, "peg": 0.44, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["定制衣柜", 25.0], ["整体厨柜", 17.0], ["其他业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -25.9, "ret_prev2_year": -21.6, "ret_ytd": -28.3, "ret_pivot": -26.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.7, "ret_60": -0.3, "ret_120": -31.0, "ret_250": -36.9, "mdd_250": -47.8, "vol_250": 31.3, "pos_52w": 63.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 59, "hard": 46, "bondness": 89}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 67%、股息率 6.2%、营收 3 年复合 -6.8%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.9 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.3%),硬资产占比 29%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.0%(经营现金流/市值 8.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.3%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 1.15 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -37%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / -0% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "志邦家居:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 4.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点。"]}}