{"F": {"ts_code": "603799.SH", "name": "华友钴业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "能源金属", "sw3": "钴", "ind": "能源金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150129", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.07, "pe_ttm": 10.437, "pb": 1.4171, "dv_ttm": 1.3156, "total_mv": 7208659.1925, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.7, 20.3, 18.6, 14.1, 17.2, 17.5], "rev_series": [211.9, 353.2, 630.3, 663.0, 609.5, 810.2], "np_series": [11.6, 39.0, 39.1, 33.5, 41.5, 61.1], "roe_series": [13.2, 26.6, 17.3, 11.1, 11.7, 14.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 993.9, "np_ttm": 69.1, "ocf_ttm": 45.4, "fcf_ttm": -116.1, "fcf_yield": -16.1, "ocf_yield": 6.3, "gm_median": 17.5, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 2.9, "npm_median": 9.1, "roe_median": 14.3, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 39.6, "fix_assets": 735.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.42, "capex_dep": 3.41, "interest_debt": 694.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 64.3, "debt_mv": 96.4, "payout": 20.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.7, "np_cagr3": 16.0, "rev_yoy": 49.4, "np_yoy": 29.4, "np_vol": 90.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 52.0, "earn_yield": 9.6, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 8.9, "fwd_pe2": 6.8, "fwd_g1": 18.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 0.3, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["正极材料", 16.0], ["镍矿产品", 14.0], ["镍产品", 14.0], ["贸易及其他", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 139.8, "ret_prev2_year": -8.6, "ret_ytd": -43.8, "ret_pivot": 83.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.5, "ret_60": -19.9, "ret_120": -42.6, "ret_250": -20.1, "mdd_250": -54.9, "vol_250": 53.5, "pos_52w": 47.4}, "S": {"duration": 23, "pricing": 70, "hard": 63, "bondness": 37}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 736 亿,占总资产 40%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:钴 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -16.1%,股息率 1.3%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 52%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 40%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -16.1%(经营现金流/市值 6.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.5%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 3.41 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.4 倍 粗算,约 52%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -20% / -43%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「能源金属」11 家中位:PE 17.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 18.4% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 31%。", "华友钴业:PE 比行业中位低 7.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.1个百分点。"]}}