{"F": {"ts_code": "603788.SH", "name": "宁波高发", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150120", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.7, "pe_ttm": 14.8597, "pb": 1.4969, "dv_ttm": 5.8394, "total_mv": 305599.187, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.1, 26.0, 23.2, 24.2, 22.4, 23.9], "rev_series": [8.9, 9.4, 10.4, 12.6, 14.6, 15.8], "np_series": [1.8, 1.5, 1.1, 1.6, 1.9, 2.2], "roe_series": [9.5, 7.6, 5.9, 8.2, 9.3, 10.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.5, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 3.4, "ocf_yield": 5.0, "gm_median": 23.9, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -5.9, "npm_median": 13.0, "roe_median": 8.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.9, "fix_assets": 4.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.5, "capex_dep": 1.4, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 20.0, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 82.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.1, "np_cagr3": 23.4, "rev_yoy": -3.5, "np_yoy": -10.1, "np_vol": 23.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 66.0, "earn_yield": 6.7, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 12.7, "fwd_pe2": 10.9, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 0.75, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["档位操纵系统总成及软轴", 21.0], ["踏板总成类产品", 15.0], ["汽车拉索", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.0, "ret_prev2_year": -3.9, "ret_ytd": -11.8, "ret_pivot": 38.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.7, "ret_60": -7.1, "ret_120": -10.0, "ret_250": -17.6, "mdd_250": -28.0, "vol_250": 29.5, "pos_52w": 77.4}, "S": {"duration": 31, "pricing": 49, "hard": 30, "bondness": 64}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 82%、股息率 5.8%、营收 3 年复合 15.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.4%(经营现金流/市值 5.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 1.40 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.9 倍 粗算,约 66%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -7% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "宁波高发:PE 比行业中位低 15.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.6个百分点。"]}}