{"F": {"ts_code": "603786.SH", "name": "科博达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "汽车电子电气系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20191015", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 39.52, "pe_ttm": 22.48, "pb": 2.8124, "dv_ttm": 1.5688, "total_mv": 1596041.6784, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.4, 34.6, 32.9, 29.6, 29.0, 25.5], "rev_series": [29.1, 28.1, 33.8, 46.3, 59.7, 69.3], "np_series": [5.1, 3.9, 4.5, 6.1, 7.7, 8.3], "roe_series": [14.6, 9.9, 10.9, 13.8, 15.6, 15.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 69.7, "np_ttm": 6.9, "ocf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 29.6, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": 14.1, "roe_median": 13.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.1, "fix_assets": 11.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.81, "capex_dep": 2.73, "interest_debt": 11.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 32.2, "debt_mv": 7.2, "payout": 67.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 27.0, "np_cagr3": 22.6, "rev_yoy": -5.6, "np_yoy": -27.9, "np_vol": 20.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 17.9, "fwd_pe2": 14.2, "fwd_g1": 26.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 0.69, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["照明控制系统", 21.0], ["电机控制系统", 9.0], ["中央计算平台和智驾域控", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.0, "ret_prev2_year": -12.9, "ret_ytd": -49.0, "ret_pivot": -22.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.9, "ret_60": -13.0, "ret_120": -33.2, "ret_250": -26.5, "mdd_250": -64.1, "vol_250": 47.1, "pos_52w": 36.7}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 51, "hard": 23, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 22.5 倍、股息率 1.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%、固定资产占比 14%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 2.73 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.5 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 37%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -13% / -33%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "科博达:PE 比行业中位低 7.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.4个百分点。"]}}