{"F": {"ts_code": "603779.SH", "name": "威龙股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "非白酒", "sw3": "其他酒类", "ind": "非白酒", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160516", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.38, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.768, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 278285.3864, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.1, 45.2, 48.3, 48.6, 53.1, 50.6], "rev_series": [3.9, 4.7, 5.0, 3.8, 4.5, 3.6], "np_series": [-2.2, -4.1, 0.1, -1.6, 0.1, -0.6], "roe_series": [-17.5, -45.0, 1.7, -24.5, 1.8, -12.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.4, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 48.6, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 21.2, "npm_median": -17.4, "roe_median": -12.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.6, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.77, "capex_dep": 0.02, "interest_debt": 2.4, "debt_ebitda": 21.8, "debt_ratio": 49.4, "debt_mv": 8.5, "payout": 60.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -10.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -12.1, "np_yoy": -398.1, "np_vol": 589.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["有机葡萄酒", 23.0], ["有机及生态葡萄酒", 23.0], ["传统葡萄酒干型酒", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -16.3, "ret_prev2_year": -29.8, "ret_ytd": 30.1, "ret_pivot": -0.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.8, "ret_60": 5.0, "ret_120": 23.4, "ret_250": 8.7, "mdd_250": -54.1, "vol_250": 51.5, "pos_52w": 57.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 69, "hard": 47, "bondness": 56}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 49%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 48.6%),硬资产占比 30%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 48.6%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 21.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.02 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 5% / 23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「非白酒」16 家中位:PE 22.9 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 40.5% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 60%。", "威龙股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点。"]}}