{"F": {"ts_code": "603768.SH", "name": "常青股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170324", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.63, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.2571, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 276742.7117, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.3, 13.0, 15.0, 15.1, 17.0, 11.9], "rev_series": [23.0, 30.1, 31.6, 32.5, 34.1, 35.3], "np_series": [0.8, 0.6, 1.0, 1.3, 0.7, -2.1], "roe_series": [4.3, 3.3, 5.2, 6.8, 3.1, -8.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 38.4, "np_ttm": -1.7, "ocf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_ttm": -2.7, "fcf_yield": -9.8, "ocf_yield": -2.4, "gm_median": 15.0, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.6, "fix_assets": 31.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.26, "capex_dep": 0.59, "interest_debt": 24.8, "debt_ebitda": 7.4, "debt_ratio": 67.9, "debt_mv": 89.8, "payout": 56.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 3.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 19.5, "np_yoy": 190.7, "np_vol": 168.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["汽车零部件", 31.0], ["汽车零件", 31.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.0, "ret_prev2_year": -34.9, "ret_ytd": 0.3, "ret_pivot": -6.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.7, "ret_60": 10.8, "ret_120": -0.3, "ret_250": -11.2, "mdd_250": -30.8, "vol_250": 29.0, "pos_52w": 88.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 75, "bondness": 51}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 47%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.0%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.8%(经营现金流/市值 -2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.0%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 0.59 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 11% / -0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "常青股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.1个百分点。"]}}