{"F": {"ts_code": "603767.SH", "name": "中马传动", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170613", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.15, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.1791, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 436713.5725, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.6, 15.7, 15.2, 19.4, 16.5, 14.9], "rev_series": [10.5, 11.2, 10.0, 11.0, 9.1, 9.1], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.4, 0.7, 0.3, -0.1], "roe_series": [3.8, 4.3, 2.9, 5.0, 2.3, -0.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.1, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 2.4, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 15.7, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -1.4, "npm_median": 4.2, "roe_median": 2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.4, "fix_assets": 5.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.18, "capex_dep": 0.54, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 17.5, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 132.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -2.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -0.5, "np_yoy": 12.6, "np_vol": 64.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["汽车变速器", 39.0], ["变速器总成", 39.0], ["汽车齿轮", 12.0], ["摩托车齿轮", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 107.7, "ret_prev2_year": -22.7, "ret_ytd": -41.2, "ret_pivot": 46.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.4, "ret_60": -10.8, "ret_120": -26.6, "ret_250": -57.8, "mdd_250": -64.8, "vol_250": 51.2, "pos_52w": 38.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 49, "bondness": 58}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 30%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.4 个百分点;资产负债率 18%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.7%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.7%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.54 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -58%,最大回撤 -65%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 38%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -11% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "中马传动:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.9个百分点。"]}}