{"F": {"ts_code": "603766.SH", "name": "隆鑫通用", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "摩托车及其他", "sw3": "摩托车", "ind": "摩托车及其他", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120810", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.77, "pe_ttm": 19.3839, "pb": 3.3156, "dv_ttm": 4.7393, "total_mv": 3033081.3863, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.6, 13.8, 17.4, 18.5, 17.6, 19.0], "rev_series": [104.4, 130.6, 124.1, 130.7, 168.2, 191.4], "np_series": [4.8, 3.8, 5.3, 5.8, 11.2, 16.5], "roe_series": [6.8, 5.3, 6.9, 7.3, 12.9, 17.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 191.6, "np_ttm": 15.6, "ocf_ttm": 23.1, "fcf_ttm": 20.7, "fcf_yield": 6.8, "ocf_yield": 7.6, "gm_median": 17.6, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 0.7, "npm_median": 3.9, "roe_median": 7.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.1, "fix_assets": 21.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.32, "capex_dep": 0.59, "interest_debt": 2.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 47.0, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 72.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.5, "np_cagr3": 46.2, "rev_yoy": 0.2, "np_yoy": -7.7, "np_vol": 37.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 17, "fwd_pe": 14.0, "fwd_pe2": 11.7, "fwd_g1": 39.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 0.7, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["摩托车及发动机", 40.0], ["摩托车产品", 40.0], ["通用机械产品", 9.0], ["通用机械", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 92.6, "ret_prev2_year": 102.0, "ret_ytd": -4.2, "ret_pivot": 152.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.3, "ret_60": 20.0, "ret_120": -0.1, "ret_250": 18.5, "mdd_250": -29.6, "vol_250": 39.6, "pos_52w": 92.0}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 48, "hard": 19, "bondness": 59}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 73%、股息率 4.7%、营收 3 年复合 15.5%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.8%(经营现金流/市值 7.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 0.59 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.4 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 18%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 20% / -0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「摩托车及其他」18 家中位:PE 28.8 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 17.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 50%。", "隆鑫通用:PE 比行业中位低 9.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}