{"F": {"ts_code": "603758.SH", "name": "秦安股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170517", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.45, "pe_ttm": 42.2629, "pb": 1.894, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 495917.82, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.3, 24.4, 20.2, 27.8, 23.9, 20.7], "rev_series": [9.1, 14.2, 12.6, 17.4, 16.0, 13.5], "np_series": [3.2, 1.0, 1.8, 2.6, 1.7, 1.5], "roe_series": [12.7, 3.9, 6.8, 9.9, 7.0, 6.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.8, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_yield": 4.8, "ocf_yield": 6.9, "gm_median": 23.9, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -5.1, "npm_median": 11.0, "roe_median": 6.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.4, "fix_assets": 11.3, "goodwill_ratio": 14.2, "pb_calc": 1.89, "capex_dep": 0.65, "interest_debt": 5.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 29.4, "debt_mv": 11.2, "payout": 78.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 2.3, "np_cagr3": -6.2, "rev_yoy": 4.5, "np_yoy": -39.9, "np_vol": 52.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["汽车零部件", 49.0], ["汽车零部件及相关", 45.0], ["镀膜产品", 5.0], ["废料等", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 118.5, "ret_prev2_year": -25.2, "ret_ytd": -34.2, "ret_pivot": 79.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.3, "ret_60": 14.6, "ret_120": -16.0, "ret_250": -28.3, "mdd_250": -56.1, "vol_250": 53.6, "pos_52w": 58.7}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 46, "hard": 49, "bondness": 51}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 42.3 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.8%(经营现金流/市值 6.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.65 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 42.3 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 15% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "秦安股份:PE 比行业中位高 12.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.9个百分点。"]}}