{"F": {"ts_code": "603757.SH", "name": "大元泵业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170711", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 72.41, "pe_ttm": 179.2438, "pb": 6.4175, "dv_ttm": 0.9667, "total_mv": 1350788.9993, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.1, 25.3, 29.4, 32.0, 29.7, 26.0], "rev_series": [14.1, 14.8, 16.8, 18.8, 19.1, 19.3], "np_series": [2.1, 1.5, 2.6, 2.9, 2.6, 1.4], "roe_series": [17.9, 11.6, 18.5, 17.7, 15.3, 7.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.6, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 29.4, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -0.7, "npm_median": 13.1, "roe_median": 15.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.3, "fix_assets": 9.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.42, "capex_dep": 2.36, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 26.8, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 70.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.7, "np_cagr3": -17.8, "rev_yoy": -7.0, "np_yoy": -68.8, "np_vol": 42.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 79.1, "fwd_pe2": 45.3, "fwd_g1": 126.0, "fwd_g2": 75.0, "peg": 1.05, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["销售商品", 50.0], ["租赁收入", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 130.8, "ret_prev2_year": -12.3, "ret_ytd": 63.9, "ret_pivot": 332.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.4, "ret_60": 55.1, "ret_120": 48.2, "ret_250": 47.9, "mdd_250": -40.6, "vol_250": 76.1, "pos_52w": 91.1}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 54, "hard": 55, "bondness": 46}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 179.2 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.4%、固定资产占比 34%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.4%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.4%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 2.36 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 179.2 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 48%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 91%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 55% / 48%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "大元泵业:PE 比行业中位高 128.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.5个百分点。"]}}