{"F": {"ts_code": "603755.SH", "name": "日辰股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "调味发酵品Ⅱ", "sw3": "调味发酵品Ⅲ", "ind": "调味发酵品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190828", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.12, "pe_ttm": 31.6042, "pb": 3.2145, "dv_ttm": 1.9618, "total_mv": 247717.6144, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.9, 43.4, 39.4, 38.8, 38.7, 37.7], "rev_series": [2.6, 3.4, 3.1, 3.6, 4.0, 4.7], "np_series": [0.8, 0.8, 0.5, 0.6, 0.6, 0.8], "roe_series": [13.6, 12.8, 7.6, 8.1, 8.9, 11.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.0, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.0, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 38.8, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -7.5, "npm_median": 16.5, "roe_median": 8.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 50.8, "fix_assets": 6.9, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 3.21, "capex_dep": 7.02, "interest_debt": 4.8, "debt_ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 43.1, "debt_mv": 19.4, "payout": 43.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.9, "np_cagr3": 18.1, "rev_yoy": 16.3, "np_yoy": -16.5, "np_vol": 22.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 28.4, "fwd_pe2": 24.4, "fwd_g1": 11.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 1.77, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["酱汁类调味料", 30.0], ["粉体类调味料", 12.0], ["烘焙类食品", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 38.0, "ret_prev2_year": 2.0, "ret_ytd": -30.9, "ret_pivot": 17.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.7, "ret_60": -5.4, "ret_120": -15.8, "ret_250": -12.5, "mdd_250": -49.5, "vol_250": 39.1, "pos_52w": 63.1}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 56, "hard": 81, "bondness": 45}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 7 亿,占总资产 51%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 38.8%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.5 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 0.0%,股息率 2.0%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 84%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 51%)和定价权(毛利率 38.8% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.8%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 51%,资本开支/折旧 7.02 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.6 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / -5% / -16%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「调味发酵品Ⅱ」15 家中位:PE 27.1 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 34.4% / 固定资产占比 39% / 分红率 67%。", "日辰股份:PE 比行业中位高 4.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.1个百分点。"]}}