{"F": {"ts_code": "603739.SH", "name": "蔚蓝生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "食品及饲料添加剂", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190116", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.72, "pe_ttm": 39.4171, "pb": 1.7923, "dv_ttm": 0.7862, "total_mv": 321852.7608, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.7, 46.3, 43.2, 46.2, 45.0, 44.8], "rev_series": [9.6, 11.5, 11.6, 12.0, 13.2, 13.7], "np_series": [1.1, 1.3, 0.7, 0.8, 0.6, 0.7], "roe_series": [10.9, 10.0, 4.3, 4.8, 3.6, 4.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.2, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 2.9, "ocf_yield": 5.0, "gm_median": 45.0, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -5.5, "npm_median": 7.3, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.9, "fix_assets": 14.7, "goodwill_ratio": 2.8, "pb_calc": 1.79, "capex_dep": 0.64, "interest_debt": 6.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 36.7, "debt_mv": 21.0, "payout": 35.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.5, "np_cagr3": -0.0, "rev_yoy": 8.8, "np_yoy": 44.3, "np_vol": 26.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 38.3, "fwd_pe2": 35.6, "fwd_g1": 3.0, "fwd_g2": 8.0, "peg": 4.79, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["酶制剂", 12.0], ["其他主营业务", 12.0], ["其他", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.2, "ret_prev2_year": -21.0, "ret_ytd": -9.5, "ret_pivot": 25.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.1, "ret_60": 3.4, "ret_120": -20.2, "ret_250": -15.9, "mdd_250": -35.7, "vol_250": 38.7, "pos_52w": 75.7}, "S": {"duration": 63, "pricing": 61, "hard": 78, "bondness": 40}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 15 亿,占总资产 49%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 45.0%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.5 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 2.9%,股息率 0.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 87%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 49%)和定价权(毛利率 45.0% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.9%(经营现金流/市值 5.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.0%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 0.64 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 39.4 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 3% / -20%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "蔚蓝生物:PE 比行业中位高 3.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.4个百分点。"]}}