{"F": {"ts_code": "603737.SH", "name": "三棵树", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "装修建材", "sw3": "涂料", "ind": "装修建材", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160603", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.58, "pe_ttm": 33.9955, "pb": 6.9216, "dv_ttm": 1.9257, "total_mv": 2176266.498, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.8, 26.0, 28.9, 31.5, 29.6, 33.8], "rev_series": [82.0, 114.3, 113.4, 124.8, 121.1, 125.3], "np_series": [5.0, -4.2, 3.3, 1.7, 3.3, 7.7], "roe_series": [23.7, -18.7, 15.6, 7.4, 12.9, 27.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 127.5, "np_ttm": 6.4, "ocf_ttm": 15.3, "fcf_ttm": 9.7, "fcf_yield": 4.5, "ocf_yield": 7.0, "gm_median": 29.6, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -4.9, "npm_median": 2.6, "roe_median": 12.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.7, "fix_assets": 50.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 6.92, "capex_dep": 1.17, "interest_debt": 36.6, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 75.4, "debt_mv": 16.8, "payout": 50.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 3.4, "np_cagr3": 33.0, "rev_yoy": 3.8, "np_yoy": -30.9, "np_vol": 132.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 17, "fwd_pe": 21.5, "fwd_pe2": 16.6, "fwd_g1": 58.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 0.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["基材与辅材", 13.0], ["家装墙面漆", 11.0], ["墙面涂料-家装墙面漆", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 55.9, "ret_prev2_year": -10.5, "ret_ytd": -36.2, "ret_pivot": 46.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.3, "ret_60": -6.1, "ret_120": -40.8, "ret_250": -41.5, "mdd_250": -55.0, "vol_250": 39.6, "pos_52w": 51.0}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 50, "hard": 57, "bondness": 53}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 34.0 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%、固定资产占比 36%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.5%(经营现金流/市值 7.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 1.17 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.0 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -6% / -41%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修建材」39 家中位:PE 36.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 20.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 51%。", "三棵树:PE 比行业中位低 2.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.9个百分点。"]}}