{"F": {"ts_code": "603729.SH", "name": "ST龙韵", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "广告营销", "sw3": "营销代理", "ind": "广告营销", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150324", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.25, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.0502, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 112902.2475, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.5, 2.8, -3.2, 12.8, 22.0, 10.5], "rev_series": [6.2, 7.4, 4.0, 3.3, 3.4, 3.4], "np_series": [-0.2, -0.6, -1.9, -0.5, 0.1, -1.1], "roe_series": [-2.7, -8.4, -30.7, -11.9, 2.3, -33.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.0, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 2.1, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 10.5, "gm_std": 8.6, "gm_stab": 0.18, "gm_chg_2022": -15.6, "npm_median": -17.9, "roe_median": -11.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.1, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 4.05, "capex_dep": 0.29, "interest_debt": 1.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 52.1, "debt_mv": 14.4, "payout": 11.1, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -5.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -23.9, "np_yoy": 230.3, "np_vol": 552.2, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["数字化营销全案服务", 33.0], ["全案服务", 33.0], ["媒介代理", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.7, "ret_prev2_year": -55.8, "ret_ytd": -23.9, "ret_pivot": 5.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.4, "ret_60": 3.4, "ret_120": -31.8, "ret_250": -32.5, "mdd_250": -59.7, "vol_250": 41.8, "pos_52w": 51.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 15, "hard": 0, "bondness": 27}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 52%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 0%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.1%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.5%,稳定度 18%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 0.29 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 3% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「广告营销」28 家中位:PE 98.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 32%。", "ST龙韵:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点。"]}}