{"F": {"ts_code": "603728.SH", "name": "鸣志电器", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电机Ⅱ", "sw3": "电机Ⅲ", "ind": "电机Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170509", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 50.13, "pe_ttm": 294.2039, "pb": 7.0671, "dv_ttm": 0.0499, "total_mv": 2099857.9725, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.2, 37.7, 38.2, 37.2, 37.7, 36.4], "rev_series": [22.1, 27.1, 29.6, 25.4, 24.2, 27.6], "np_series": [2.0, 2.8, 2.5, 1.4, 0.8, 0.6], "roe_series": [9.6, 12.1, 9.6, 5.1, 2.7, 2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.1, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 37.7, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 5.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.3, "fix_assets": 10.7, "goodwill_ratio": 10.7, "pb_calc": 7.07, "capex_dep": 3.11, "interest_debt": 7.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.1, "debt_ratio": 37.9, "debt_mv": 3.4, "payout": 12.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.3, "np_cagr3": -37.2, "rev_yoy": 19.2, "np_yoy": 38.0, "np_vol": 30.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 185.7, "fwd_pe2": 138.0, "fwd_g1": 58.0, "fwd_g2": 35.0, "peg": 5.31, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["控制电机及其驱动系统类", 29.0], ["控制电机及其驱动系统产品", 29.0], ["贸易类产品", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.1, "ret_prev2_year": -18.0, "ret_ytd": -30.7, "ret_pivot": 44.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.3, "ret_60": -18.1, "ret_120": -18.5, "ret_250": -24.9, "mdd_250": -46.5, "vol_250": 50.0, "pos_52w": 59.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 59, "hard": 36, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 294.2 倍、股息率 0.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 37.7%、固定资产占比 22%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.7%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.7%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 3.11 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 294.2 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -18% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电机Ⅱ」28 家中位:PE 46.1 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 20.8% / 固定资产占比 20% / 分红率 38%。", "鸣志电器:PE 比行业中位高 248.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点。"]}}