{"F": {"ts_code": "603722.SH", "name": "阿科力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171025", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.49, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.2649, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 288176.6368, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.5, 23.2, 30.3, 14.8, 7.2, 5.1], "rev_series": [5.4, 8.8, 7.1, 5.4, 4.7, 4.9], "np_series": [0.5, 1.0, 1.2, 0.2, -0.2, -0.4], "roe_series": [9.2, 16.2, 16.9, 3.1, -2.3, -3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.7, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -3.6, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 14.8, "gm_std": 9.5, "gm_stab": 0.36, "gm_chg_2022": 5.8, "npm_median": 4.3, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.2, "fix_assets": 6.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.26, "capex_dep": 2.94, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 29.4, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 74.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -12.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 39.9, "np_yoy": -299.9, "np_vol": 94.6, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 158.0, "fwd_pe2": 24.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 546.0, "peg": 0.29, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["脂肪胺", 30.0], ["光学材料", 20.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.8, "ret_prev2_year": -21.8, "ret_ytd": -25.3, "ret_pivot": -13.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.8, "ret_60": -25.6, "ret_120": -22.6, "ret_250": -42.7, "mdd_250": -53.0, "vol_250": 46.8, "pos_52w": 52.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 31, "hard": 77, "bondness": 49}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 48%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.8 个百分点;资产负债率 29%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.8%,稳定度 36%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.8%,稳定度 36%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 2.94 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -43%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -26% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "阿科力:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.7个百分点。"]}}