{"F": {"ts_code": "603721.SH", "name": "中广天择", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "影视院线", "sw3": "影视动漫制作", "ind": "影视院线", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170811", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.06, "pe_ttm": 101.8796, "pb": 5.7671, "dv_ttm": 0.3799, "total_mv": 273780.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.4, 24.5, 28.1, 22.3, 21.6, 24.7], "rev_series": [3.0, 2.7, 2.1, 2.3, 3.0, 3.4], "np_series": [-0.2, 0.2, 0.2, -0.1, -0.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [-4.5, 4.2, 2.9, -1.6, -3.4, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.3, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 24.5, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 18.7, "npm_median": 5.7, "roe_median": 2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.0, "fix_assets": 2.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.77, "capex_dep": 0.69, "interest_debt": 1.8, "debt_ebitda": 4.6, "debt_ratio": 37.1, "debt_mv": 6.6, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 17.2, "np_cagr3": 19.0, "rev_yoy": -10.8, "np_yoy": 2.8, "np_vol": 173.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["销售商品", 33.0], ["产品", 33.0], ["视频节目制作相关服务", 16.0], ["影视剧投资", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -26.3, "ret_prev2_year": -7.0, "ret_ytd": 10.0, "ret_pivot": 3.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 19.7, "ret_60": 13.7, "ret_120": 2.7, "ret_250": 5.8, "mdd_250": -44.3, "vol_250": 44.7, "pos_52w": 81.4}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 55, "hard": 38, "bondness": 33}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 102 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 37%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.5%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 18.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 0.69 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 101.9 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 6%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 20% / 14% / 3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「影视院线」19 家中位:PE 84.8 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 22.8% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 40%。", "中广天择:PE 比行业中位高 17.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.6个百分点。"]}}