{"F": {"ts_code": "603713.SH", "name": "密尔克卫", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "仓储物流", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180713", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 63.29, "pe_ttm": 16.7923, "pb": 2.2722, "dv_ttm": 1.4355, "total_mv": 1101552.9565, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.7, 10.3, 10.9, 11.8, 11.4, 11.5], "rev_series": [34.3, 86.4, 115.8, 97.5, 121.2, 133.4], "np_series": [2.9, 4.3, 6.1, 4.3, 5.7, 6.3], "roe_series": [18.3, 17.8, 17.4, 11.0, 13.6, 13.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 142.7, "np_ttm": 6.6, "ocf_ttm": -2.9, "fcf_ttm": -7.3, "fcf_yield": -6.6, "ocf_yield": -2.6, "gm_median": 11.4, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -5.8, "npm_median": 5.4, "roe_median": 13.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.9, "fix_assets": 31.4, "goodwill_ratio": 9.3, "pb_calc": 2.26, "capex_dep": 2.56, "interest_debt": 63.8, "debt_ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 65.2, "debt_mv": 57.9, "payout": 20.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.8, "np_cagr3": 1.2, "rev_yoy": 13.3, "np_yoy": 8.4, "np_vol": 27.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 6.0, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 14.2, "fwd_pe2": 11.9, "fwd_g1": 18.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 0.71, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["MCD不一样的分销", 31.0], ["货运代理", 21.0], ["MGL全球国际物流业务", 21.0], ["仓储", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.7, "ret_prev2_year": -2.9, "ret_ytd": 15.6, "ret_pivot": 51.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.1, "ret_60": 15.7, "ret_120": 2.6, "ret_250": 2.8, "mdd_250": -28.2, "vol_250": 45.1, "pos_52w": 79.6}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 43, "hard": 32, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 16.8 倍、股息率 1.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 11.4%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.6%(经营现金流/市值 -2.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.4%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 2.56 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.8 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 16% / 3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "密尔克卫:PE 比行业中位低 4.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点。"]}}