{"F": {"ts_code": "603712.SH", "name": "七一二", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180226", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.9, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.4302, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 918680.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.1, 47.6, 46.6, 41.9, 31.1, 32.0], "rev_series": [27.0, 34.5, 40.4, 32.7, 21.5, 21.5], "np_series": [5.2, 6.9, 7.7, 4.4, -2.5, -4.9], "roe_series": [18.8, 20.8, 19.6, 9.8, -5.5, -11.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.8, "np_ttm": -4.9, "ocf_ttm": -3.1, "fcf_ttm": -3.6, "fcf_yield": -3.9, "ocf_yield": -3.4, "gm_median": 41.9, "gm_std": 7.0, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": 14.2, "roe_median": 9.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.7, "fix_assets": 5.9, "goodwill_ratio": 1.6, "pb_calc": 2.43, "capex_dep": 0.61, "interest_debt": 16.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 53.0, "debt_mv": 17.6, "payout": 10.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -19.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 20.6, "np_yoy": 3.0, "np_vol": 69.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 198.3, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["无线通信终端产品业务", 22.0], ["专用无线通信终端产品", 22.0], ["系统集成产品", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.7, "ret_prev2_year": -38.1, "ret_ytd": -42.7, "ret_pivot": -20.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.7, "ret_60": -10.3, "ret_120": -35.1, "ret_250": -50.2, "mdd_250": -54.8, "vol_250": 39.6, "pos_52w": 49.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 56, "hard": 11, "bondness": 27}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -4.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 53%,有息负债 16 亿,经营现金流/市值 -3.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 41.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.9%(经营现金流/市值 -3.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.9%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 0.61 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -50%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -10% / -35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "七一二:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点。"]}}