{"F": {"ts_code": "603711.SH", "name": "香飘飘", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "饮料乳品", "sw3": "软饮料", "ind": "饮料乳品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171130", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.68, "pe_ttm": 23.6981, "pb": 1.3901, "dv_ttm": 0.5993, "total_mv": 482236.9488, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.2, 33.6, 33.8, 37.5, 38.3, 37.1], "rev_series": [37.6, 34.7, 31.3, 36.3, 32.9, 29.3], "np_series": [3.6, 2.2, 2.1, 2.8, 2.5, 1.0], "roe_series": [13.3, 7.7, 7.0, 8.7, 7.4, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 31.7, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 4.7, "fcf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_yield": 8.0, "ocf_yield": 9.8, "gm_median": 37.1, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": 6.8, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.0, "fix_assets": 12.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.39, "capex_dep": 0.49, "interest_debt": 10.0, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 29.6, "debt_mv": 20.8, "payout": 40.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.2, "np_cagr3": -23.6, "rev_yoy": 23.3, "np_yoy": 111.2, "np_vol": 31.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.2, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 22.6, "fwd_pe2": 20.0, "fwd_g1": 5.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 1.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["销售商品", 50.0], ["冲泡类", 26.0], ["快饮即饮类", 23.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -16.9, "ret_prev2_year": -2.4, "ret_ytd": -12.6, "ret_pivot": 14.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.4, "ret_60": -9.0, "ret_120": -9.9, "ret_250": -15.2, "mdd_250": -36.6, "vol_250": 33.2, "pos_52w": 74.6}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 58, "hard": 40, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 23.7 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 37.1%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.1%),硬资产占比 25%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.0%(经营现金流/市值 9.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.1%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 0.49 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.7 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -9% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饮料乳品」27 家中位:PE 29.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 29.2% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 52%。", "香飘飘:PE 比行业中位低 5.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.7个百分点。"]}}