{"F": {"ts_code": "603699.SH", "name": "纽威股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140117", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 45.62, "pe_ttm": 20.8334, "pb": 7.6689, "dv_ttm": 3.5296, "total_mv": 3536840.5898, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.5, 27.8, 30.5, 31.4, 38.1, 39.3], "rev_series": [36.3, 39.6, 40.6, 55.4, 62.4, 77.7], "np_series": [5.3, 3.8, 4.7, 7.2, 11.6, 16.0], "roe_series": [19.3, 13.1, 15.1, 20.6, 28.7, 35.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 82.6, "np_ttm": 17.0, "ocf_ttm": 18.2, "fcf_ttm": 15.7, "fcf_yield": 4.4, "ocf_yield": 5.1, "gm_median": 31.4, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -3.9, "npm_median": 13.2, "roe_median": 20.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.1, "fix_assets": 12.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.67, "capex_dep": 1.56, "interest_debt": 21.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 56.2, "debt_mv": 6.2, "payout": 76.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 24.2, "np_cagr3": 50.9, "rev_yoy": 14.5, "np_yoy": 15.2, "np_vol": 31.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 18.6, "fwd_pe2": 15.1, "fwd_g1": 12.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.81, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 162.3, "ret_prev2_year": 90.2, "ret_ytd": -10.4, "ret_pivot": 202.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.7, "ret_60": -10.1, "ret_120": -22.5, "ret_250": 43.0, "mdd_250": -39.8, "vol_250": 50.1, "pos_52w": 69.9}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 50, "hard": 19, "bondness": 51}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 77%、股息率 3.5%、营收 3 年复合 24.2%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.4%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.4%(经营现金流/市值 5.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.4%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 1.56 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.8 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 43%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -10% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "纽威股份:PE 比行业中位低 29.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.7个百分点。"]}}