{"F": {"ts_code": "603689.SH", "name": "皖天然气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "燃气Ⅱ", "sw3": "燃气Ⅲ", "ind": "燃气Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170110", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.75, "pe_ttm": 11.8065, "pb": 1.095, "dv_ttm": 4.4724, "total_mv": 407505.385, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.2, 8.6, 8.5, 11.2, 11.8, 12.7], "rev_series": [47.6, 49.4, 59.3, 61.0, 58.0, 51.1], "np_series": [2.1, 2.1, 2.6, 3.4, 3.3, 3.2], "roe_series": [9.2, 8.4, 9.7, 11.8, 10.5, 9.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 50.3, "np_ttm": 3.5, "ocf_ttm": 3.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.0, "ocf_yield": 8.8, "gm_median": 11.2, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 0.3, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 9.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 54.4, "fix_assets": 41.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.08, "capex_dep": 1.85, "interest_debt": 24.9, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 42.7, "debt_mv": 61.1, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.8, "np_cagr3": 7.9, "rev_yoy": -3.1, "np_yoy": 11.2, "np_vol": 16.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 58.0, "earn_yield": 8.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["长输管线", 30.0], ["长输管线业务", 18.0], ["城市燃气", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.7, "ret_prev2_year": 8.4, "ret_ytd": -0.8, "ret_pivot": 4.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.6, "ret_60": 1.0, "ret_120": -6.7, "ret_250": -8.5, "mdd_250": -25.2, "vol_250": 22.8, "pos_52w": 83.7}, "S": {"duration": 26, "pricing": 43, "hard": 87, "bondness": 75}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 16个百分点,营收 3 年复合 -4.8%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 50%、股息率 4.5%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 25 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 3.7 倍,资产负债率 43%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 4.5% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 11.8 倍 倒过来就是 8.5% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.2%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.0%(经营现金流/市值 8.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.2%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 1.85 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.8 倍 粗算,约 58%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -25%,年化波动 23%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 1% / -7%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;符合。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「燃气Ⅱ」30 家中位:PE 22.2 / 股息率 2.5% / 毛利率 15.7% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 50%。", "皖天然气:PE 比行业中位低 10.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.8个百分点。"]}}