{"F": {"ts_code": "603688.SH", "name": "石英股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "非金属材料Ⅱ", "sw3": "非金属材料Ⅲ", "ind": "非金属材料Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20141031", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 44.98, "pe_ttm": 176.7244, "pb": 4.159, "dv_ttm": 0.1902, "total_mv": 2436468.9934, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.7, 45.6, 68.4, 87.5, 46.0, 34.6], "rev_series": [6.5, 9.6, 20.0, 71.8, 12.1, 10.1], "np_series": [1.9, 2.8, 10.5, 50.4, 3.3, 1.5], "roe_series": [10.8, 13.6, 38.7, 93.4, 5.0, 2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.4, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 46.0, "gm_std": 19.0, "gm_stab": 0.59, "gm_chg_2022": 27.6, "npm_median": 29.2, "roe_median": 13.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.1, "fix_assets": 19.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 4.16, "capex_dep": 1.21, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 5.6, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 30.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -20.5, "np_cagr3": -47.4, "rev_yoy": 6.0, "np_yoy": -14.5, "np_vol": 185.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 73.1, "fwd_pe2": 37.5, "fwd_g1": 142.0, "fwd_g2": 95.0, "peg": 0.77, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["石英管(棒)", 44.0], ["石英管", 44.0], ["高纯石英砂", 5.0], ["石英砂", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.3, "ret_prev2_year": -47.2, "ret_ytd": 23.3, "ret_pivot": 110.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.0, "ret_60": -40.9, "ret_120": -6.9, "ret_250": 6.7, "mdd_250": -52.9, "vol_250": 61.7, "pos_52w": 51.9}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 55, "hard": 50, "bondness": 32}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 176.7 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 46.0%、固定资产占比 31%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 46.0%,稳定度 59%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.0%,稳定度 59%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 27.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 1.21 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 176.7 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 7%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -41% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「非金属材料Ⅱ」14 家中位:PE 54.2 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 26.6% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 41%。", "石英股份:PE 比行业中位高 122.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.1个百分点。"]}}