{"F": {"ts_code": "603687.SH", "name": "大胜达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "纸包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190726", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.25, "pe_ttm": 108.3657, "pb": 2.7175, "dv_ttm": 0.2589, "total_mv": 893801.8375, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.7, 12.2, 16.0, 16.9, 18.0, 19.4], "rev_series": [13.5, 16.6, 20.6, 20.1, 21.3, 22.0], "np_series": [2.8, 1.0, 1.1, 0.9, 1.1, 0.8], "roe_series": [17.1, 5.3, 5.3, 3.4, 3.3, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.6, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 16.9, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 4.3, "npm_median": 6.1, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.8, "fix_assets": 12.7, "goodwill_ratio": 8.7, "pb_calc": 2.72, "capex_dep": 2.09, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 23.2, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 30.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.3, "np_cagr3": -9.9, "rev_yoy": 5.7, "np_yoy": 9.1, "np_vol": 29.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 90.3, "fwd_pe2": 56.0, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 61.0, "peg": 1.48, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["纸箱纸板", 22.0], ["纸包装收入", 22.0], ["精品烟包", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.0, "ret_prev2_year": -36.6, "ret_ytd": 71.3, "ret_pivot": 179.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.5, "ret_60": -14.3, "ret_120": 64.7, "ret_250": 110.3, "mdd_250": -42.5, "vol_250": 64.1, "pos_52w": 77.7}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 49, "hard": 44, "bondness": 31}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 108.4 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 16.9%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.9%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 2.09 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 108.4 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 110%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / -14% / 65%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "大胜达:PE 比行业中位高 69.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.0个百分点。"]}}