{"F": {"ts_code": "603686.SH", "name": "福龙马", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "综合环境治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150126", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.72, "pe_ttm": 35.1858, "pb": 1.6336, "dv_ttm": 0.8236, "total_mv": 569970.5088, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.1, 21.4, 22.4, 22.8, 21.6, 22.6], "rev_series": [54.4, 57.0, 50.8, 51.1, 50.4, 49.3], "np_series": [4.4, 3.4, 2.6, 2.3, 1.5, 1.6], "roe_series": [16.6, 11.6, 8.4, 7.2, 4.4, 4.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 51.1, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 5.6, "fcf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_yield": 5.9, "ocf_yield": 9.8, "gm_median": 22.4, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -4.8, "npm_median": 6.1, "roe_median": 7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.0, "fix_assets": 6.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.63, "capex_dep": 1.71, "interest_debt": 7.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 47.5, "debt_mv": 13.5, "payout": 44.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.0, "np_cagr3": -15.9, "rev_yoy": 7.6, "np_yoy": 7.3, "np_vol": 14.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["环境生态产业运营", 25.0], ["环卫产业服务", 25.0], ["智能装备", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 192.0, "ret_prev2_year": 4.3, "ret_ytd": -53.6, "ret_pivot": 94.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.5, "ret_60": -1.5, "ret_120": -30.8, "ret_250": -31.0, "mdd_250": -66.0, "vol_250": 58.8, "pos_52w": 39.2}, "S": {"duration": 59, "pricing": 49, "hard": 14, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 35.2 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.4%、固定资产占比 9%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.9%(经营现金流/市值 9.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.4%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 1.71 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 35.2 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -66%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 39%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -2% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "福龙马:PE 比行业中位高 9.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.9个百分点。"]}}