{"F": {"ts_code": "603685.SH", "name": "晨丰科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "LED", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171127", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.77, "pe_ttm": 244.7343, "pb": 3.5203, "dv_ttm": 0.108, "total_mv": 702443.5385, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.6, 18.8, 11.0, 14.9, 15.5, 15.5], "rev_series": [11.7, 15.5, 11.6, 12.4, 12.7, 11.3], "np_series": [1.0, 1.0, -0.4, 0.8, 0.1, 0.2], "roe_series": [9.6, 9.0, -3.6, 7.4, 1.0, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.7, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": -2.5, "fcf_yield": -3.6, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 15.5, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -11.6, "npm_median": 1.0, "roe_median": 1.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 57.7, "fix_assets": 22.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.52, "capex_dep": 4.36, "interest_debt": 14.0, "debt_ebitda": 7.6, "debt_ratio": 48.2, "debt_mv": 20.0, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -1.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -10.0, "np_yoy": 48.0, "np_vol": 166.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 69.4, "fwd_pe2": 35.2, "fwd_g1": 253.0, "fwd_g2": 98.0, "peg": 0.71, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["LED灯泡散热器", 17.0], ["灯头类", 11.0], ["配售电业务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 66.0, "ret_prev2_year": -22.3, "ret_ytd": 42.7, "ret_pivot": 164.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.0, "ret_60": -7.3, "ret_120": 2.7, "ret_250": 65.4, "mdd_250": -33.0, "vol_250": 52.0, "pos_52w": 77.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 92, "bondness": 46}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 58%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.5%,稳定度 84%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.6%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.5%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 4.36 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 244.7 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 65%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -7% / 3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "晨丰科技:PE 比行业中位高 183.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 26.3个百分点。"]}}