{"F": {"ts_code": "603683.SH", "name": "晶华新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "胶黏剂及胶带", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171020", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.99, "pe_ttm": 46.6408, "pb": 2.71, "dv_ttm": 0.621, "total_mv": 465920.6175, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.1, 16.3, 13.8, 16.3, 17.1, 17.3], "rev_series": [10.4, 13.9, 14.1, 15.6, 18.8, 21.7], "np_series": [1.6, 0.3, 0.1, 0.6, 0.7, 0.9], "roe_series": [18.1, 3.3, 0.6, 5.0, 5.1, 6.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.4, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 5.5, "gm_median": 16.3, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -5.3, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 5.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.9, "fix_assets": 15.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 2.71, "capex_dep": 1.79, "interest_debt": 9.5, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 47.2, "debt_mv": 20.5, "payout": 30.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.4, "np_cagr3": 148.6, "rev_yoy": 17.7, "np_yoy": 28.1, "np_vol": 363.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 187.9, "ret_prev2_year": -19.9, "ret_ytd": -37.2, "ret_pivot": 119.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.8, "ret_60": -46.7, "ret_120": -41.9, "ret_250": -37.7, "mdd_250": -63.2, "vol_250": 53.3, "pos_52w": 44.1}, "S": {"duration": 69, "pricing": 44, "hard": 73, "bondness": 31}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 46%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.3%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 5.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.3%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 1.79 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 46.6 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -63%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -47% / -42%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "晶华新材:PE 比行业中位高 10.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.4个百分点。"]}}